← The Long Lunch Writing

2026-08-10 · 7 min

The average is now free

For a hundred years the economy paid you to be predictable. That job has just been automated.

In 1911 Frederick Taylor wrote down the rule the next century would run on. For any job, he said, there is one best way — and the worker's job is to stop deciding and do it.

"In the past, the man has been first," he wrote. "In the future, the system must be first."

Two years later, Ford's line dropped the time to build a car from twelve hours to ninety minutes. You could have a Model T in any colour you liked, as long as it was black, because one colour kept the line moving.

The logic was simple and merciless. A machine that stamps out a million identical things only pays if the people feeding it are identical too. So the economy paid for predictability, and got it — rewarding whoever showed up on time and did the reliable thing, and filing everything else about a person under hobby. The odd instinct. The strong opinion. The particular eye. For the weekend, if there was time.

It didn't stop at work

It came for how we measured a mind.

In 1905 a Frenchman built a test to find the schoolchildren who needed help. Within twelve years it had crossed the ocean, hardened into a single number, and been stamped onto roughly one and three-quarter million army recruits. The whole range of a person — the kind that builds a barn, or reads a room, or hears the wrong note — got crushed into the narrow band a paper test could score. And because that band was what the economy was buying, we started calling it intelligence, and told everyone else they were less.

By the 1950s the product had a name. William Whyte called him the organization man: the one who had taken the vows of organization life and understood in his bones that fitting in beat standing out.

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For a hundred years, the smooth, interchangeable version of a person was the one that got paid. It grew so ordinary that we stopped seeing it as a choice someone had made for us.

Then we built a machine that does interchangeable better

It pulls toward the middle by design. Ask it for a word and it gives you the likeliest one. Ask for a picture and it gives you the centre of every picture it has seen.

The research is unusually clean on this. Put a few hundred writers to work on short stories with AI assistance and each story comes out a little better — and all of them come out more alike. In one 2024 study in Science Advances, 293 writers produced work that individual readers rated higher and that collectively covered less ground than the unassisted group. Sit people down to brainstorm with it and the ideas clump so hard that nine strangers, each asked to invent a toy, each named theirs "Build-a-Breeze Castle."

Feed the machine enough of its own output and the edges burn off first — the rare and the strange — until only the middle is left. What these tools make when nobody steers them got a name last year: both a dictionary and a society of linguists made "slop" their word of the year.

Which brings us to the part that changes your business

The moment the average is free and endless, the average is worth nothing.

You cannot charge for what anyone can summon in four seconds. The only thing left with a price is the thing that will not average down: the specific, unmistakable work of one person with a point of view.

For a hundred years the economy paid you to sand that off. It cannot afford to anymore.

AI didn't kill creativity. It killed the economy's reason for suppressing it.

What that means on a Tuesday morning

This is where the essay usually ends and nothing happens. So, concretely.

The predictable version of your business is now the cheap one. Every competitor has the same tools you do. Whatever you were doing that was merely competent and on time is being priced accordingly, right now, whether or not anyone has told you.

The scarce version is the one you were trained to hide. Your taste. Your judgment. The call you make when the room leans the other way. The thing you believe about your field that would make a competitor wince.

Nothing about this is automatic. Aim the same tool the wrong way and it flattens you faster than any factory could. Paste your homepage into a chat window, ask it to make this better, and it hands you back the homepage of every other business on earth — because the average is all it knows by default. Lean on it to think for you and the early evidence says your own thinking goes slack, the way a muscle does when a machine takes the weight.

The dependency is the real danger. The screen where the face should be is what you get the moment you let the machine lead.

The practical version

The order matters more than the tools.

First, write down what you actually think. Not positioning. Not a value proposition. The three or four things you believe about your work that not everyone in your field believes, in sentences you would say out loud to a client. This is the part nobody can automate for you, and it is the part everyone skips.

Then decide what must stay human. For most businesses it is a short list: the point of view, the taste calls, the judgment about which of a hundred options is worth making, and the relationships. Everything on that list is yours to keep, permanently.

Then automate the rest against what you wrote. Not "use AI to write your marketing." Give the tools your actual material — your beliefs, your voice, your rules, your standards — and let them carry the repetition. The repetition is enormous and it is eating your week. Let it go.

Then check the output like an editor, not a customer. The question is never "is this good enough to send." It is "does this sound like us, and would we have made this choice?" If the answer is no, that is information about your foundation, not a reason to give up.

The century we grew up in paid people to be less like themselves. That deal has expired, quietly, while everyone was arguing about whether the robots are coming.

The work that lasts now is the work a machine cannot touch. Which is the strangest good news of my working life: the thing that pays and the thing that makes you human have become the same thing, and they have not been the same thing in living memory.

The Long Lunch

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